A controversial play | Let's say your chances of winning against both hands is 70 percent

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A controversial play In our books, we point out that it is mainly in pot with several players may be situations in which you with a good hand Raise should defer. It aims so that small pot to keep their own hands and to disguise, to someone in the next round to a bed and deprive after the man with a Raise can decimate the field. (Sometimes you will also order someone else to bring to Raisen.) For this recommendation, we are criticized because you in this way the opportunity fails, the maximum from worse hands out. Critics point out that it was better to turn sooner already a raise and then to bed. There is no doubt that in certain situations, often the better alternative. However, we believe that our style of play in more situations, a higher EV aufweist than most think.

Hopefully our readers recognize that this debate is about turning that our style of play in case of success less money wins, but more often the pot. It is worthwhile to abandon profits to increase chances of victory? This is usually a very difficult question. Below, I would like a very simplified model up to this situation very rough outlines. Assuming the bet is $ 100 and you have a hand, at 60% suggests your two opponents. The first opponent checks, the second set and you're on the train. After a call Raise both counterparties. In the next round set back and will be again by both opponents gecallt. After the first two rounds are therefore of each player $ 300 in the pot (if nothing has been set previously). The alternative is, in the first round only to call and then after a bed check and a raise. Let's say this could raise the first player to distribute. Then land than 60 to 40 favorite in a heads-up situation. An opponent has given up $ 100 and the other has, as you put $ 300. (Of course, it is unrealistic to assume that your chances of winning actually played in one hand remain unchanged.) It is easy to understand that your EV with the second alternative 120 $, ie 60% from $ 400 minus 40% from $ 300 amounts. What about the first variant, when you raise and then immediately put? In this rare case you win. Are the chances of winning regardless of your opponent, then your chances of victory against both 60% times 60 $ 36 $ respectively. Both remain in the hands, your EV is therefore 36% times 600 $ minus 64% times $ 300. That is only 24 $, so much less than in the heads-up situation.

Let's say your chances of winning against both hands is 70 percent. They play the pot with two opponents, you win in 49% of the cases of 600 $, while in 51% of cases lose $ 300. This corresponds to an EV of 141 $. In heads-up win in 70% of the cases $ 400 and lose 30% of the cases $ 300, so bottom line $ 190. It's still better to defer the raise to the second player to be eliminated. (And do not forget: This is true even if we accept that there was still no money in the pot.) They are 4 to 1 favorite (80 percent) against any enemy hands, sees things differently. Now it is better in the first round raise, the second player in the hand and more money to win. This way of playing leads to an EV of 64% of 600 minus $ 36% from $ 300, or $ 276. The other method you win 80% from $ 400 minus 20% of $ 300, then $ 260. These are in hand, however, three instead of two adversaries involved, each with a chance of victory 20 percent, it is simplified under these conditions right, to defer the raise. Raisen you directly, you win in 51.2% of the cases and lose 900 $ in 48.8% of the cases $ 300. (Do you see why?) This corresponds to an EV of $ 314.40. Wait a Raise and thus eliminate two opponents, you win 80% of the cases $ 500 and lose 20% of the cases $ 300. This corresponds to an EV of 340 $. Naturally this simplified model has some weaknesses. The most important is that the elimination of other players are usually not such a big increase your chances of winning as the lead model. The odds of each opponent are not independent. This is especially true if your hand at the moment not only the best, but still a nearly unbeatable can improve. Other problems with this model have to do with the fact that the probabilities as well as the use of heights from wave to wave change. All these problems have meant that you do not have such a clear favorite to be, as the model suggests, to correct the pot to start building.

The other is in this model assumed that in the earlier rounds no money in the pot is migrating. If this were the case, there would be far more reasons, the pot einzustreichen under all circumstances, even if this would result, these do not continue to build. This model shows apparently following: There can be multiple opponents perfectly correct, with pretty good hands do not build up the pot, if this leads to a player on your right in the next round continues, the refrain that otherwise would have. When this is exactly true, we will be another time to discuss. Examples can be found in our book "Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players". At the moment suffice it to say that this game means far more accurate than the "common sense" would suggest.






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